Best Odds In Casino Roulette
Heading into the casino, you will be surrounded by a vast array of games, some more tempting than others. While there are players out there who swear by roulette, others profess that blackjack presents the best odds for success. But, how do you know : Blackjack or Roulette ? Are some games luckier than other? What does it all come down to? Don’t panic, we’ll take you through it all.
Players sometimes have difficulty with the idea that slot machine results can be programmed and random at the same time. So for many years, I’ve used a comparison to roulette, where you don’t know when any given number will turn up, but the odds of the game will lead to a 5.26 percent house edge – the same as a 94.74 percent payback percentage. American roulette has the odds of 38:1 while having the same payout ratio — hence a higher house edge. Tips on Roulette Betting Although roulette is a game purely based on chance, there are some basic tips that could help you get over the hump. That seems a hefty increase but even at that higher house edge rate, roulette is still one of the better games in terms of house edge for players in the casino, on a par with most slot games and much better than some other games or bets such as Keno or betting on a tie in Baccarat. Heading into the casino, you will be surrounded by a vast array of games, some more tempting than others. While there are players out there who swear by roulette, others profess that blackjack presents the best odds for success. Welcome to CasinoToday’s roulette player guide on the best roulette odds and payouts. In this very first chapter, we cut straight to the chase and run you through the process of understanding the odds, and how they affect the game, the edge that casinos have over players.
Roulette odds
Every spin of the roulette wheel is an independent event, where future results are not impacted by previous events.
The odds in roulette quite simply never change. Once the ball travels around the wheel and lands on a number, it will have no recollection of what it did the next time the croupier flings it around the wheel. This is because every spin of the roulette wheel is an independent event, where future results are not impacted by previous events.
Regardless of whether the ball has landed on the number 7 the last three times, it’s just as likely the ball will land on the number 7 again, and again, and again. The odds of landing black will always be 18/37 (or 38 if playing American roulette), and likewise landing on red. Furthermore, the odds will always be 1/37 for landing a straight.
Understandably this sounds insane, as much so as the fact that the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to come up when playing the lottery as any other sequence, but it is all true. There are some people that will not be told though, and insist on using systems such as the Martingale system; lowering their wagers based on previous results. Anybody who adopts this system is quite frankly throwing their money down the drain.
For a moment though, imagine that a brand new roulette wheel was released, which removed numbers once they’d been hit. This would change the odds of every spin. Removing the number ‘7’ for example would mean the new odds for landing the number ‘8’ are 1/36, instead of 1/37. And while this isn’t particularly useful for roulette players, it certainly is for those who play blackjack.
Read our explanation of roulette odds to learn how to master them.
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Read more about American Roulette, a game designed by Netent!
Blackjack Odds
In the above example we determined that reducing the amount of numbers on a roulette wheel increased the odds of landing on any remaining numbers. And whilst this cannot occur in roulette, it certainly can in blackjack. Once a card has been dealt, (before the cards are re-shuffled once every 25 hands or so), there is no chance you will receive that card again. As such, the odds of receiving other cards have been increased.
This is essentially what card counters do. They measure how many high cards and how many low cards are in the deck and change their bets accordingly. Known as a heuristic system, they estimate how favourable the deck is at any given time.
Deck composition strategies (or card counting) in blackjack
To help you get your head around this, look at it this way. Hitting natural blackjack is the best way to hit the big money, and so it’s beneficial to have aces and 10s in the deck.
Say you land an ace, the amount of aces in the deck has been reduced and so, you now have less chance of landing a natural blackjack. With no aces in the deck, the odds of landing a blackjack is zero, and the house edge increases considerably. The same holds true for 10s, but not in exactly the same way.
The amount of 10s is much higher than aces, so finding a happy medium between the two works. With an even amount of 10s and aces in the deck, the odds of landing blackjack increase and as such, the card counter increases their bet.
Blackjack or Roulette : Pure chance over strategy
One crucial thing that makes blackjack different to roulette is how the house edge can be manipulated in the card game. In roulette, the house edge will always be fixed at 5.26 percent (American roulette), or 2.70 percent (European roulette). Nothing whatsoever can change this. Nothing. On the other hand though, there are multiple decisions you can make in blackjack that affect the house edge.
We explore a few of these elements in our other tips articles, but it generally comes down to specific play in situations. This is also known as ‘basic play’, or ‘basic strategy’, which provides the mathematically optimal way to play in any situation that comes up. We’ve covered that here, so make sure you check it out. By using our strategy guide, you can play with a house edge between 0.5 – 1%.
If you want to play with these kinds of odds, stick to blackjack. These odds are not possible with roulette.Of course, roulette can be a lot of fun, so if you don’t want the hassle of playing with a strategy then opt for roulette.
If you want to play with these kinds of odds, stick to blackjack. These odds are not possible with roulette.
LadyLucksIntroduction
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk. For games like Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and Crazy 4 Poker, where there are two required initial wagers, the house edge is based on one of them only. House edge figures are based on optimal or near-optimal player strategy.
The table below shows the house edge of most popular casino games and bets.
Casino Game House Edge
| Game | Bet/Rules | House Edge | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | Banker | 1.06% | 0.93 |
| Player | 1.24% | 0.95 | |
| Tie | 14.36% | 2.64 | |
| Big Six | $1 | 11.11% | 0.99 |
| $2 | 16.67% | 1.34 | |
| $5 | 22.22% | 2.02 | |
| $10 | 18.52% | 2.88 | |
| $20 | 22.22% | 3.97 | |
| Joker/Logo | 24.07% | 5.35 | |
| Bonus Six | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.79 |
| With insurance | 23.83% | 6.51 | |
| Blackjacka | Liberal Vegas rules | 0.28% | 1.15 |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.24 | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 1.05 |
| Surrender on ties | 3.70% | 0.94 | |
| Bet on tie | 18.65% | 8.32 | |
| Catch a Wave | 0.50% | d | |
| Craps | Pass/Come | 1.41% | 1.00 |
| Don't pass/don't come | 1.36% | 0.99 | |
| Odds — 4 or 10 | 0.00% | 1.41 | |
| Odds — 5 or 9 | 0.00% | 1.22 | |
| Odds — 6 or 8 | 0.00% | 1.10 | |
| Field (2:1 on 12) | 5.56% | 1.08 | |
| Field (3:1 on 12) | 2.78% | 1.14 | |
| Any craps | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Big 6,8 | 9.09% | 1.00 | |
| Hard 4,10 | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Hard 6,8 | 9.09% | 2.87 | |
| Place 6,8 | 1.52% | 1.08 | |
| Place 5,9 | 4.00% | 1.18 | |
| Place 4,10 | 6.67% | 1.32 | |
| Place (to lose) 4,10 | 3.03% | 0.69 | |
| 2, 12, & all hard hops | 13.89% | 5.09 | |
| 3, 11, & all easy hops | 11.11% | 3.66 | |
| Any seven | 16.67% | 1.86 | |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Ante | 3.42%* | 3.13* |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.97 | |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Blind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 4.56 |
| Keno | 25%-29% | 1.30-46.04 | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 5.17 | |
| Pai Gowc | 1.50% | 0.75 | |
| Pai Gow Pokerc | 1.46% | 0.75 | |
| Pick ’em Poker | 0% - 10% | 3.87 | |
| Red Dog | Six decks | 2.80% | 1.60 |
| Roulette | Single Zero | 2.70% | e |
| Double Zero | 5.26% | e | |
| Sic-Bo | 2.78%-33.33% | e | |
| Slot Machines | 2%-15%f | 8.74g | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | d |
| Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | d | |
| Super Fun 21 | 0.94% | d | |
| Three Card Poker | Pairplus | 7.28% | 2.85 |
| Ante & play | 3.37% | 1.64 | |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | Ante | 2.19% | 4.94 |
| Video Poker | Jacks or Better (Full Pay) | 0.46% | 4.42 |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | d |
Notes
| a | Liberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender. |
| b | Las Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender. |
| c | Assuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker. |
| d | Yet to be determined. |
| e | Standard deviation depends on bet made. |
| f | Slot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer |
| g | Slot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high. |
Guide to House Edge
The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.
The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.
Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don’t Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn’t resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.
Element of Risk
For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.
Element of Risk
| Game | Bet | House Edge | Element of Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | Atlantic City rules | 0.43% | 0.38% |
| Bonus 6 | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.41% |
| Bonus 6 | With insurance | 23.83% | 6.42% |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.56% | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 2.68% |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Standard rules | 3.42%* | 1.09% |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Pay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 0.64% |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.13% | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 2.85% | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | 0.65% |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| Three Card Poker | Ante & play | 3.37% | 2.01% |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | 2.19%* | 0.53% | |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | 3.23% |
Standard Deviation
Roulette Best Odds Of Winning
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.
Best Odds In A Casino
Standard Deviation
| Number | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.1974 |
| 0.50 | 0.3830 |
| 0.75 | 0.5468 |
| 1.00 | 0.6826 |
| 1.25 | 0.7888 |
| 1.50 | 0.8664 |
| 1.75 | 0.9198 |
| 2.00 | 0.9546 |
| 2.25 | 0.9756 |
| 2.50 | 0.9876 |
| 2.75 | 0.9940 |
| 3.00 | 0.9974 |
| 3.25 | 0.9988 |
| 3.50 | 0.9996 |
| 3.75 | 0.9998 |
Hold
Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.
Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes
The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.
Hands per Hour and Average House Edge
| Games | Hands/Hour | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Blackjack | 70 | 0.75% |
| Big Six | 10 | 15.53% |
| Craps | 48 | 1.58% |
| Car. Stud | 50 | 1.46% |
| Let It Ride | 52 | 2.4% |
| Mini-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Midi-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Pai Gow | 30 | 1.65% |
| Pai Pow Poker | 34 | 1.96% |
| Roulette | 38 | 5.26% |
| Single 0 Roulette | 35 | 2.59% |
| Casino War | 65 | 2.87% |
| Spanish 21 | 75 | 2.2% |
| Sic Bo | 45 | 8% |
| 3 Way Action | 70 | 2.2% |
Footnotes
* — House edge based on Ante bet only as opposed to all mandatory wagers (for example the Blind in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and the Super Bonus in Crazy 4 Poker.
Translation
A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.
Written by: Michael Shackleford